"Thankful I'm alive"

Yesterday, at my family's Thanksgiving feast, we all were asked what we were thankful for.

I was pretty much caught off-guard by this question.  I didn't want to say anything flip or rude, so I blurted something out fast, like "Thankful I'm alive."

Back in June 9, 1989, I was working at what was Crown Shoes over on Hyde Park Avenue and getting change from what was then the Suffolk Franklin bank.  I was crossing the street and I got hit by a car.

To say that Someone Upstairs was keeping an eye out for me was an understatement.  I walked - yes, walked - away with two stitches in my head (the only pain I felt was the lidocaine burning and numbing my head) and numerous scrapes.  I was well over six feet then, but anyone smaller would have easily been dead.

When it came to that revelation, it was one resting in my subconscious until it got jostled by accident.  Awaking the slumbering part of my life that was bad at one moment but turned out very lucky, as it were.  Sidney Friedman, the MASH psychiatrist played wonderfully by Allan Arbus, would be the one sitting in front of me, asking why I said that, and then after recounting what happened, would drolly say, "It's funny how what happened earlier in life comes back at the strangest times."

So I am thankful I'm alive. And I am forever grateful Someone Upstairs thought I wasn't ready for wings yet on June 9, 1989.

Four streets down

Our company on Mount Auburn Street closed yesterday as it was four streets down from where the second Marathon bomber was finally captured in Watertown - ironically, hiding in a boat.  If it weren't for an observant homeowner, who peeked inside and discovered him in there, the manhunt would have been continued into a nationwide dragnet (insert DUM BA DUM DUM).

I can't praise the police and law enforcement enough.  They did an outstanding job, nothing like I've ever seen before...everyone across the state, in various vehicles, some regular, others heavily armored, looking for someone heavily armed and extremely dangerous.  The police were disappointed they couldn't catch their man at 6:30, but about forty-five minutes later, a vigilant homeowner who had just been released from lockdown took a look around his boat and instantly changed fate.  I listened to the radio exchange between police and it was more riveting than the news.  Then, at 8:43pm, it was all over.  They got their man.

Critics will ask why a lockdown of the entire city of Boston was necessary (although it seemed like it was business as usual in West Roxbury, albeit with no bus service).  One, the lockdown prevented the curious from wandering down and interfering with police investigation.  Conversely, it made law enforcement's investigation tons easier without a giant media and bystander circus.  Two, the bomber was armed and extremely dangerous; the Cambridge police discovered the bombers weren't going to be satisfied with just bombing the Marathon, but were planning a final bigger act; pressure cooker bombs, pipe bombs, and other weapons were found in the apartment.  Third, if the bomber decided to take hostages and wasn't going to surrender, that would have been far worse.

I took it in stride.  I did my laundry, paid my bills, had lunch, and just rode it out.  I wasn't in harm's way; but when they captured the guy, I felt relieved it was over.

Horatio Caine ain't here

In the show CSI - Miami, when the bad guy was captured, Horatio Caine did a line, then put on his sunglasses, and delivered a punchline.  You knew the show was over then and the bad guy had been brought to justice.

Today's bombings at the Boston Marathon are already leading to speculation of who did it and why.  We will sooner or later learn the identities and motives.  In the meantime, we must wait. 

Horatio Caine ain't here.  To paraphrase Rick Pitino, he's not coming through that door.

We must be thankful our loved ones were safe, or in a safe place.  The first responders did an amazing job in triage, hunting for explosives, cleaning up the debris, and finally taking the injured to the hospital.  For those in the hospital, pray for their recovery, or pray that they've arrived to their Maker safely.

Then there will be grousings that everyone will be inconvenienced.  That the police with dogs will be nothing more than "security theater."  That traffic will be backed up, train stations closed, etc.  Then the complaints about civil rights being eroded away, people being jailed for suspicion rather than fact, spirited away to phantom internment camps.  That is the voice of the insecure trying to rationalize an attack like this to soothe themselves.

But in no way did we deserve this.  We'll rise above and survive better than most.

I groused to myself this weekend that tourists will be taking over Boston for the marathon, hobnobbing here and there, looking in awe at all the tourist spots, eating overpriced tourist food, and going back to their hotels wondering how other neighborhoods have all sorts of crime and seediness.  After the explosions, I thought to myself, "These tourists will now see the real side of Boston," and not that Boston that eyerolls each time a tourist from Cornpone USA asks where Harvard Yard is, or if Norm is still at Cheers.  That "real" Boston isn't Southie, with dropped 'r's, or Roxbury, with enough blood and guts to make Gettysburg look like Six Flags, or other places. 

That real side of Boston is when we get hit, we hit back.  Hard.  We don't give up, curl up into the fetal position, and plead for mercy.  We get our crooks any way we can.  We're ambitious, we love the thrill of the chase, and we bask in glory when the problem is solved.  We don't have our Horatio Caines, but we have our own crusty detectives, our eager patrolmen, and people behind the scenes who don't need rounds or guns put people away - computers, forensics and witnesses do it for them. 

And so it will be - when the perps are escorted from a Boston Police cruiser in handcuffs, tourists will understand that sure, we're cranky, but we're cranky with a purpose.

Stealing from savers - a hell of a trial balloon II

In an update to the previous post, Jonathan Krugman says that kind of plan is already here in the form of ZIRP - Zero Interest Rate Program. 

The ZIRP has had an unintended - and positive - consequence.  Debtors - poor and middle class - who spent willy-nilly during the days where credit was easy are now pushed to pay off the high-interest rate balances on their debt - some at rates of 30% or more.  With a lower interest rate, balances are paid off much faster than they normally would.  While you might see puny interest in your savings accounts, once a debt is paid off, the interest you would have paid to the banks goes right into your pockets. 

Example: If you paid off a $10,000 balance at 24% APR, you would be receiving an effective $200 extra per month.  That's $200 less the bank would be receiving from you each month, which is much, much better than the 0.1% APR the bank would have paid on that $10,000 ($10 a year).  You make a nice profit of $2,390, tax-free.  And, if the creditor discharged your $10,000 debt, it would have become taxable income.

Also, not having any debt at all also denies banks and creditors the ability to make interest and profits off responsible customers.  It may not make you a profitable customer in some banks' eyes, but in others, the ability to manage debt well is sound financial footing, no matter how much income or savings you have.  Paying off the debt is equal to an interest free - 0% - loan.

On the other hand, there could be 180 degree opposite of Cyprus.  In the right situation, that $9.6 trillion the banks are sitting on could be forced to be returned to savers - in exchange for not receiving a lengthy Federal prison sentence for the collapse of the markets in 2008.  That and a few forced Big Bank breakups would work immediate and long-lasting wonders.

Stealing from savers - a hell of a trial balloon

SamaBlog puts the whole Cyprus "savers to sacrifice savings" neatly: (emphasis mine)

I just wanted to go on the record that what has happened in Cyprus, with the seizure of bank accounts, is a trial balloon. If the world give it a collective shrug, that a first world central bank seized money from its citizens with no due process, then it will happen again, and it could happen here even. But as of right now, it is no longer safe to hold significant assets in a bank account, and I would recommend removing significant amounts of cash from the bank asap.

 What Cyprus was planning to do, via European Union diktat, was to take 6.9% out of all accounts up to 100,000 euros, and 9.5% above that, as conditions of the EU bailing out Cyprus.  That effort was met with a huge outcry, and to prevent panic and bank runs, Cypriot banks closed.  The Cypriot parliament voted that effort down, but banks are still closed, and may yet have bank runs.  Cypriots and expats from Russia and the UK were furious, not just at the ministers, but at Angela Merkel, the German chancellor who engineered the conditions of the bailout.

Back in the 1940s, Americans were compelled to buy war bonds, which back then paid a handsome interest rate of 5% (but the dollar back then bought much more than today; a dollar back then would be about $14 today).  Today, people are pressured to fund their retirement accounts, which total about $10-$20 trillion.  Given the right manufactured crisis, the government will see that $10-$20 trillion as an irresistable lure that its citizens will be glad to hand over - not knowing that their money may never be paid back.

Say the government needs to bail out banks, and decide they will levy a 20% surtax on all 401(k) accounts, regardless of value.  That means for every $100,000 you've scrimped and saved tax-free, the government is seizing $20,000, never to give it back.  If you earn $50,000 a year and contribute 20%, $2,000 of the $10,000 that you put into your account will be captured by the government.   If the situation is dire enough, the government will have the right to seize every bit of that $10-$20 trillion, and pay back at a fraction of that to the savers at a much lower rate.

Resentment in perfection

There are schools that couldn't care less about kids who graduate, so long as they leave the building with the diploma they're all but handed.  There are also those that do care and make every effort to have their kids graduate at a rate above 80%.  Those who graduate every single student in the senior class is rare, yet incredible accomplishment.

So why take away the prom?   I can see cancelling a prom for bad behavior, but to motivate students to have that distinction, against all odds, and taking away a major event just so the administrators can feel better?

These schools - really the administrators - who likely have tons and tons of federal and state education funds riding on the graduation rate, i.e. having a metrics fetish so archingly huge that a 99% graduation rate means losing funds - funds they can't afford to lose.  It's an attention getter for the students to work harder, of course, but it sounds more like Captain Queeg running the high school.

On the other hand, these students are motivated enough to do their best, so this could all be a huge bluff by this principal to get them to work harder.  I'd love to see the students call this principal's bluff as follows: "Fine, we'll hold our own, unsanctioned prom, full of liquor and drugs, obscene dancing, and chaos.  No chaperones, no control, no anything.  Would you like to be in the news for a 100% graduation rate, or half of the NYPD in the Bronx hauling kids to jail?  Your choice."

Update: Never mind...the prom will go on.

Taxes are funny, innit? II

Deval Patrick put out his budget proposals, and the people are taking out their frustrations over the details of said proposals on their politicians.

Namely: the increase of the income tax from 5.25% to 6.25%; the reduction of state sales tax to 4.5%, to which sodas, snacks, and water bottles will be included; the increase of cigarette taxes to $3.51, and other things.  On the positive side, the personal exemption may go up to $8,800 - but only if you earn less than $37,000.

A few back-of-the-envelope calculations: If you're buying a pack of $6 generic cigarettes and the new excise tax is $3.51, that sports an effective tax rate of 58.5%, even before the sales tax is applied.  If you're buying $50 of snacks and a case of 24 cans of soda at $8, the new tax will rake in $2.25 for the snacks and $0.36 for the soda, plus another $0.60 for deposit.  That means an additional $3.21 tacked onto the bill.  If you earn $40,000 a year, you pay an extra $400 per year, or $8 per paycheck.

Deval Patrick knows that he's a lame duck and is very smart to use ignorance to his advantage. He knows the real money to be taken is where no one will take a second to question why and calculate how much.  He also knows the taxes he's raising are on the poor and lower middle classes who have little, if any, influence on how these taxes will be distributed - it might sound great that the monies are going to transit and education, but often they go to the general fund so they can be spent on pork and perks.  They're the same people who will hang on every promise but in the end get whacked in the face, time and again, because they aren't savvy enough to differentiate between good taxes (that are put out front and benefit everyone) and bad taxes (that can be hidden and manipulated to the whim of the politician).

Furthermore, these extra taxes beyond the income tax are designed to be regressive, and will come from the disposable income of the poor and lower middle class.  The snack and soda taxes alone will be a harsh regressive tax, and coupled with yearly fare hikes, the urban areas (and not the suburbs, who sustain most of the commuter rail fare hikes) will financing a huge chunk of shiny new buses and trains, while also having bus and train services reduced or cut.  On top of it, no one, not even the poorest, will avoid the 6.25% income tax (and no one knows if they'll offer an alternate, higher income tax for those who want to pay more - the 5.85% tax has generated so little revenue anyway).

Voters re-elected Patrick with passion.  Now they're seeing their passion repaid with a massive shakedown on their wallets.  Now the voters are certainly rekindling that same passion - by giving politicians a huge earful about how they'll vote for the other guy if this budget passes.